Iran conflict widens across the Gulf as Dubai drone strike heightens risks to U.S. facilities and shipping

U.S. officials say a drone struck a parking lot next to the U.S. consulate in Dubai, underscoring how the Iran-related conflict is spilling into Gulf states and raising risks to U.S. personnel and commercial transit. President Donald Trump has signaled a potential U.S. naval role in escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and offering insurance for Gulf shipping. Separately, indirect U.S.-Iran diplomacy described by a senior Iranian official appears stalled on sanctions relief and Iran’s demand that its uranium enrichment rights be recognized, even as the IAEA reported limited inspection access at Isfahan and uncertainty about the location of a declared new enrichment facility.

Confirmed developments

A drone struck a parking lot adjacent to the U.S. consulate building in Dubai, according to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Separate reporting described the incident as a suspected Iranian drone strike near the facility, reflecting rising concern that the confrontation involving Iran is increasingly affecting U.S. interests and sites beyond the immediate combat zone.

At the strategic level, President Donald Trump said the United States might escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said the U.S. would offer insurance for Gulf shipping and provide tanker escorts, signaling an intent to reduce commercial disruption and reassure energy markets amid heightened regional insecurity.

The administration’s public messaging has also been under scrutiny. The New York Times reported that Rubio walked back a prior suggestion that Israel forced the United States’ hand in striking Iran, indicating sensitivity around how the decision to use force is framed and who is seen as driving escalation.

Alongside the security developments, questions about U.S. legal authorities have reemerged. Lawfare assessed that the Trump administration’s attack on Iran pushed even the executive branch’s more expansive understandings of presidential war powers toward their limits, highlighting potential domestic legal and political constraints as the conflict evolves.

Diplomacy and the nuclear file

Even as military risk rises, indirect diplomacy has been described as continuing in parallel, though with major unresolved issues. A senior Iranian official, speaking to Reuters, said Iran and the United States remained divided over the scope and mechanism of sanctions relief. The same official said talks were expected to resume in early March and that an interim agreement was possible if differences could be narrowed.

The official also said Tehran could “seriously consider” steps such as exporting part of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and diluting its purity level. However, the official emphasized that Iran’s right to uranium enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “must be recognized” in any deal, a position that has historically been a central sticking point in negotiations.

International nuclear inspectors have reported persistent verification concerns at a key Iranian site. According to Al Jazeera’s account of an IAEA report, the agency said Iran had stored most of its highly enriched uranium at an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan facility and confirmed earlier findings that Iran was enriching uranium up to 60%. The IAEA urged Iran to allow inspections and raised concerns about its lack of access to Isfahan. It also said inspectors did not know the precise location of a fourth enrichment facility that Iran had said it was setting up in Isfahan prior to what Al Jazeera described as the 12-day war.

Succession claim in Iran

A separate claim with potentially significant long-term implications came from Iran International, which reported—citing information it said it received—that Iran’s Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the next leader of the Islamic Republic under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The report, if substantiated, would point to active maneuvering around Iran’s leadership succession during a period of acute external conflict, though the claim was presented as sourcing from information provided to the outlet rather than an official public confirmation.